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Below is the returns from the ISEQ index from 1990 to present (source www.ise.ie/app/showdailyindex.asp)
Will the above 20% yearly return continue?
What are your predictions?
I say 9,900 5.2% for 2007
Year Index Value % Return
1990 1,195
1991 1,367 14.44%
1992 1,226 -10.33%
1993 1,883 53.65%
1994 1,851 -1.74%
1995 2,232 20.62%
1996 2,689 20.44%
1997 3,994 48.54%
1998 4,996 25.08%
1999 5,018 0.43%
2000 5,723 14.05%
2001 5,707 2.00%
2002 3,996 -28.00%
2003 4,921 27.00%
2004 6,198 29.00%
2005 7,364 22.00%
2006 9,408 27.76%
Average 16.56% -
- CommentAuthorBlack Monday
- CommentTimeJan 8th 2007
Iseq down by at least 15% at 2007 year end however sometime in 2007 should see a major correction in all markets. US housing on the way down, stock market next due to possible major shock. Iraq, Iran or realisation of the fundamentals of the economy....... -
I think by 2007 year end the ISEQ will be marginally positive, and I mean marginally. I can't see us being in for the most stable of years, purely because I agree with you about the housing market. I don't think it's too long before it crashes because its way overdue.
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- CommentAuthorbigspender
- CommentTimeJan 9th 2007
Hmmm, I'm not so sure I agree. The majority of financiers are predicting a bleak year for US multinationals, which has a direct impact on Irish banks and therefore the ISEQ in general. Look at the dip at the end of November. I'll certainly pick and choose my investments this year. -
Some of the Irish Banks BOI and AIB are likely takeover targets, in my view!
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- CommentAuthorbigspender
- CommentTimeJan 9th 2007
Possibly. I don't doubt that a major source of investment would be an appealing offer for some of them, especially the two that you have mentioned above. But how do you think that'll be reflected in the market? -
I think that it would weaken the market. Any major takeovers always affect the market because the company's fall often has a direct impact on other company shares. If someone is selling one share they will buy another high climber which causes an inbalance as that share invariably falls. If people retain their cash rather then reinvesting, the capital that has been taken out weakens the market too. Say 50% of all share holders that get out take one option and the other 50% take the other; where does that leave the Iseq? The market cycle is the only reason why I believe it will be marginally positive because I can see the correction coming early in the year which then leaves the last few months for recovery.
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- CommentAuthorbigspender
- CommentTimeJan 11th 2007
I disagree. I can see a crash toward the end of the year rather than the beginning. What we saw yesterday was in response to foreign markets and that was only over the course of a day. I think Black Monday's estimate is nearer the money. The 20% margin has been consistant for four years now and the fifth year is historically the breaker. -
The fourth year is usually the breaker, but that doesn't always translate as a negative. There are years that have failed to return the highs of the year before, but have scraped in positive. I believe that 2007 will be one of them. 1999 is a prime example. It only just scraped in but the previous years had been 20%+. A negative doesn't always have to follow a positive.
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We've been spoilt by the fact that it has been so profitable over the last few years. More and more people are investing large amounts so it stands to reason we have more to lose. It may be worth looking at the stock that has done well during break years to see if there is some sort of pattern.
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- CommentAuthorpintofplain
- CommentTimeJan 13th 2007
I haven't voiced my opinion here either! I think it will end up marginally negative, maybe -2%. I agree that the fourth year is usually the breaker - it is a historically proven fact. However, looking at the Iseq now and in previous years, I think it will be another year or so before the correction really begins to happen. I see the latter end of the year being somewhat uncertain before plummeting in the first half of next year. -
I have to say I'm not sure which way it will go. Come the end of the year I only think there will be a couple of points in it to determine whether 2007 finishes negative or positive. Call it sitting on the fence but I wouldn't like to prdict which way it will go on the year so far.
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Year end above 10% return. (above 10,000) The economy is strong company earnings are strong. This Irish economy is only maturing.
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- CommentAuthorbigspender
- CommentTimeJan 23rd 2007
Manufacturing coming under increasing presure in Ireland 240 jobs to go in FCI Ireland, Cork. ISEQ needs some fresh blood this year to sustain it current growth. Perhaps NTR may make a debut to the ISEQ. An attractive stock. -
Iseq index continues to perfrom...
The ISEQ-index jumped this afternoon by 184.24 points to close the day at 9435.49 marking the end to an eventful day on the trading floor. -
The ISEQ index of Irish shares continued in buoyant form... breaking through the 10,000 barrier, rising up 36.72 points to 10017.8 .
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